April Case-Shiller Results and May Forecast: Getting Back to Normal

• Home prices climbed 3.5% year-over-year in April, a slowdown from 3.7% in March.
• The 10-city composite rose 2.3% year-over-year, which was a slight gain from 2.2% growth in March. The 20-city composite climbed 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.6% the previous month.
• Nine of the 20 cities reported higher year-over-year price increase for April versus March. The greatest gains were in Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa.

The housing market has continued to normalize throughout the spring, finding more balance between buyers and sellers and slowing to a pace of growth much more in line with historic norms. U.S. home price growth slowed again in April, climbing just 3.5% year-over-year, after annual growth of 3.7% in March, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller's national home price index (not seasonally adjusted).

Only nine of the 20 cities in Case-Shiller's 20-city composite posted higher year-over-year price increases for April than March. Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa led the group - gaining 7.1%, 6% and 5.6%, respectively - while markets at the more expensive end of the market grew more slowly. Seattle posted no year-over-year change, and San Francisco climbed just 1.8%.

Index	Zillow Forecast, Released 5/28/19	Actual Case-Shiller Indices, Released 6/25/19	Historical Median Absolute Error*
10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	2.2%	2.3%	0.2%
20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%
20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	2.4%	2.5%	0.2%
U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.6%	3.5%	0.1%
*Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s monthly Case-Shiller forecasts. Zillow’s Case-Shiller 10- and 20-City Index forecasts date to 2011.  The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014.

 

Despite persistently low mortgage interest rates, affordability is top of mind for many buyers, who are strained by prices that have grown much faster than incomes over the past several years and faced an ongoing dearth of supply that is keeping competition high.

This slowdown has been widely expected for some time, and is likely to give many would-be buyers some much-needed breathing room. Prices will continue to grow, just not at the unsustainable rates of the past several years.

Index	Actual April Case-Shiller Change	Zillow’s May Case-Shiller Forecast
10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.2%	0.0%
10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	2.3%	2.2%
20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.0%	0.0%
20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	2.5%	2.4%
U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.3%	0.2%
U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.5%	3.5%
*Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s monthly Case-Shiller forecasts. Zillow’s Case-Shiller 10- and 20-City Index forecasts date to 2011.  The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014.

 

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