A full-floor residence in one of Manhattan‘s most exclusive buildings has landed on the market for the first time in 60 years.
With an asking price of $50 million, the third floor at 820 Fifth Ave. has earned the title of the week’s most expensive new listing on realtor.com®.
The 18-room home overlooking Central Park belonged to arts patron Jayne Wrightsman and oil tycoon Charles Wrightsman. He died in 1986 at the age of 90. She died earlier this year; she was 99.
In addition to this gorgeous home on the Upper East Side, Mrs. Wrightsman left behind a legacy of philanthropy, donating hundreds of artworks to the nearby Metropolitan Museum of Art.
Her estate is handling the sale of her residence, with proceeds to benefit charity, according to the New York Times.
Gallery with fireplace
realtor.com
Living room with fireplace
realtor.com
Central Park views
realtor.com
Master suite
realtor.com
The 7,000-square-foot layout includes 100 feet of Central Park frontage, with entertainment rooms spanning some 70 feet along Fifth Avenue.
Oversize windows take in the midtown Manhattan skyline and park views.
A private elevator landing opens to a 45-foot gallery with parquet de Versailles flooring and a wood-burning fireplace. That space leads into the drawing room, formal dining room, and library, all featuring 12-foot ceilings. The kitchen sits adjacent to a family room for casual dining.
A separate wing features five en suite bedrooms, as well as a study that could be converted into another bedroom. The light-filled master suite includes a fireplace and sitting area.
The home comes with staff bedrooms. But if more space is desired, a three-bedroom guest or staff apartment on the first level of the building can be purchased separately for $2.5 million.
The 12-story limestone building, built in 1916, has only one apartment per floor. High-profile residents have reportedly included Tommy Hilfiger, socialiteLily Safra, and hedge fund investor Kenneth Griffin. ( Griffin went on to spend$238 million on another New York City abode, the highest amount paid for a home in the U.S.)
And just having deep pockets isn’t enough to secure yourself a highly coveted spot in the high-end building. Potential buyers must plan to pay cash, as the building doesn’t allow financing. In addition, buyers must also have that special je ne sais quoi to earn the co-op board’s approval.
John Burger with Brown Harris Stevens holds the listing.
Every Thanksgiving offers up a surprise bargain or two. This year, we found you nine—and you don’t have to head to the mall and jostle with the crowds.
We’re talking homes. Affordable homes from across the United States: nine desirable family homes priced under the national median list price of $312,000.
We were delighted to find these nine gems scattered across the country, each roomy enough to host next year’s turkey feast and still have enough cash left over for a little Black Friday shopping.
So skip the lines and prepare to be grateful for these lovely homes, all priced within reach. There are more than enough delicious deals to go around…
Big D Delight: Ready to move in, this four-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom, over 2,400-square-foot home was built in 2006. It boasts traditional lines and finishes to suit almost any taste. The large lot means a big backyard for outdoor living and entertaining and a treeline view.
Minny midcentury: This brick-front midcentury modern home has two bedrooms, two bathrooms, and nearly 1,300 square feet, spread across three levels. Recent updates include a new furnace, central air, custom window treatments, a renovated full bathroom, and fiber-optic wiring. The location is also a big plus—it’s across the street from a park, near trails, and within walking distance of restaurants and shops.
Desert dwelling: Dig that enormous cactus out front! Built in 1957, this brick ranch is suited for family living, with three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and 1,800 square feet. Exposed brick and wood, built-ins, large open spaces and plenty of natural light create a versatile space indoors. Outdoors, the quarter-acre lot features a large, in-ground pool, as well as a yard for kids or pets.
Boise beauty: Built in 1959, this well-preserved ranch home has only had one owner. A recent face-lift to the three bedroom, 1.5 bathroom, 1,400-square-foot house has given the interiors new life. Even with the updates, charming original details like the double fireplace, blond wood cabinetry, and built-ins are all intact.
Space to spread out: Built in 1830, this Greek Revival mansion has eight bedrooms, seven bathrooms, and more than 5,700 square feet—which means this historic home costs only $52 a square foot. The listing suggests that it could be used as an Airbnb or wedding venue, and it previously operated as the Emerson House Bed and Breakfast.
Close to Lake George in the Adirondacks, the home is filled with treasures: stained glass, crystal chandeliers, and custom woodwork. The nearly full-acre lot also includes a 4,000-square-foot carriage house.
Georgia gravy: Well-maintained since it was built a decade ago, this four-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home sits on more than a quarter-acre lot in the Lakeside Preserve planned community. Resident amenities include a clubhouse, pool with slide, basketball, tennis, a playground, and a lake. High ceilings, hardwood floors, plus neutral paint and carpet keep things light and airy in the home’s nearly 3,400 square feet.
Pop the popcorn: This large home, with a lovely fireplace, would be the perfect place to spend a night in, watching movies! Besides the big living room, a large kitchen with an island is just one of the highlights of this five-bedroom, three-bathroom, nearly 2,600-square-foot home, perfect for a family.
Revamped in Washington: This beauty of a bungalow was built in 1943 and recently remodeled. The bathrooms, granite countertops, furnace, and other major systems are all like-new. With five bedrooms and three bathrooms in over 2,800 square feet home, it’s located in Shadle Park and includes other upgrades, like hardwood floors and built-ins.
Park Ridge perfection: Built in 1946 and updated throughout, this two-bedroom brick bungalow has 1,450 square feet of living space. There’s also a basement being used as a roomy rec room, and an attic that’s currently being used as a third bedroom.
Do you cringe at the idea of stampeding to the mall to snag Black Friday deals? Then you might embrace shopping its far saner cousin: Small Business Saturday.
This event was started by American Express in 2010—during the dregs of the Great Recession—as a way to lure shoppers back to main street and encourage folks to buy from local businesses. The idea quickly caught on. As of 2018, over 7,500 stores and organizations in all 50 states participate with deals on anything you might need to stock those boxes under your Christmas tree, and more.
And there’s something in it for you, too: Not only are you getting deals on merchandise, you’re also exposed to plenty of unique stuff that might be tougher to find on, say, a ginormous retailing website named after a river in South America. And wouldn’t it be nice to give your niece a one-of-a-kind hat-and-glove set from that cute knitting shop around the corner rather than that cookie-cutter set everyone will be getting from Gap?
Here’s more about Small Business Saturday, why it’s good for consumers and their communities, as well as how to participate in your area. (And no, you don’t need to use an AmEx card to join in on these deals.)
When is Small Business Saturday?
Small Business Saturday takes place right between two of the biggest shopping days of the year: Black Friday and Cyber Monday. That’s no coincidence since its purpose is to serve as a counterpoint to both.
“The Friday and Monday events are a big deal for big-box retailers and online giants, while this day is about supporting small merchants, with an emphasis on brick-and-mortar stores,” explains Kristin McGrath, editor and shopping expert at BlackFriday.com.
And the benefits of shopping this event abound: Shopping at a small business feels good, helps neighbors, and keeps the money you shell out right in your own community. In fact, studies show that for every dollar spent at a local shop, 67 cents gets funneled back into the local economy, keeping those mom and pop businesses running.
A vibrant shopping area not only makes living in your area better, it also enhances your home’s appeal whenever you decide to sell your place.
What are the best Small Business Saturday deals?
Sure, if you’re in need of a megasize flat-screen TV, heading to a Black Friday doorbuster at a chain store makes sense. But if you need something small for a stocking, Yankee swap, or early Hanukkah gift, going local will get you something far more special.
“Small businesses are great for white elephant gifts because you’ll find plenty of unusual items that anyone would like, from coffee beans to soaps and candles,” says McGrath. You can help out local shops by encouraging members of your book club, block association, or office pool to adopt a “small business theme” and buy from local shops downtown.
Lots of items on display on Small Business Saturday are not just sold locally, they’re also likely to be crafted nearby, including wooden items, local clothing, and home decor accessories like pillows and artwork.
“Many jewelry designers can’t get into big-box stores, so you’ll find these unique wares in small local shops,” notes McGrath.
American Express makes it easy to pop in your ZIP code and find participating stores in your area. Head to the Shop Small homepage, and click on “Find Small Businesses Near You.” Another way to plan your shopping is to keep an eye out for signs in store windows that advertise Small Business Saturday participation.
Small merchants often advertise these special Saturday sales on social media platforms such as Instagram and Facebook. And you might sign up for your favorite retailers’ mailing list if they have one, says McGrath. And since many local farmers markets are on Saturdays, this group is a top pick for local shopping.
“The farmers market is made up completely of local merchants, makers, and crafters, so stopping by is an easy way to participate in Small Business Saturday,” says McGrath.
Granted, the savings at small businesses won’t be nearly as impressive as those at the big-box stores on this same weekend, but many shoppers would be happy to pay a little extra if it keeps their local community humming.
Holiday entertaining is all about one-of-a-kind decor, and we’ve got some show-stopping looks that you can make yourself. You don’t have to be an expert crafter to accomplish these easy DIY projects. Creating a custom hanging herb chandelier and dessert takeaways will really impress your guests at this year’s seasonal get-together.
Create a rustic vibe by wrapping the dining table in brown kraft paper. Arrange leaves, loaves of bread and open bottles of wine along the center of this setup. Lovely butter knives atop neatly placed cloth napkins seal the deal.
Serve tea or coffee with your homemade treat bags after the meal to brighten everyone’s day. Taking the little bit of time to make this thoughtful goody that your guests can break into right away or take home really makes visitors feel special. Taffy, cookies or a slice of pie are all great sweets to bag up for later.
Hanging Herb Chandelier Materials
3-foot cut of wood (or desired length, depending on your table)
Hold your holiday decor horses! Before you purchase gobs of tinsel and piles of twinkle lights, take another look at items you already have - they may be the holiday embellishment you've been looking for.
By hunting through your cabinets and closets, you can easily repurpose common household items into yuletide decor for your abode. Need a little inspiration? These design experts share how they style up everyday objects into festive flourishes.
Dig through the craft closet
"Bust out the burlap! I've been known to use burlap for anything from tablecloths to a Christmas tree skirt. It's so versatile and lends an organic, rustic vibe."
- Brooke Wagner, Brooke Wagner Design
"Roll out brown or black butcher paper on your table like a runner. It somehow elevates everything you set on it. Plus, you can write your guests names on it in black marker (or chalk marker for black paper) instead of place cards."
- Jenn Muirhead, Jennifer Muirhead Interiors
"Paint a wall with chalkboard paint. It’s the perfect themed accent wall that's fun and creative, and it gets the kids involved, too."
- Melissa Martin Molitor, MMM Designs-Interiors
"Tie ribbon on everything! Thread it through chandeliers or banisters. Or put festive printed fabric in picture frames and scatter them throughout the house."
- Katie Schroder, Atelier Interior Design
Scour the kitchen cupboards
"Place a set of teacups on a pretty tray, and fill each cup with a succulent or small flower arrangement. Or create a centerpiece by placing candles on a serving tray or cake stand."
- Gita Jacobson, In The Deets
“Fill a large glass serving bowl - or maybe a punch bowl or trifle bowl - with whatever seasonal item you want. Just use the same thing so it looks purposeful and pretty.”
- Jenn Muirhead, Jennifer Muirhead Interiors
"Take an ordinary flower vase, and stick glass ornaments inside with a string of white lights. It's a pretty display that’s simple and creative!"
- Wendy Berry, W Design Interiors
Ransack the fridge
"Dried fruit garland is still classic and sweet. Take a needle and thread to some popcorn, cranberries or dried sliced oranges, and string it up wherever you want to!"
- Jenn Muirhead, Jennifer Muirhead Interiors
"Cut up fresh fruit and put it in a pitcher before adding flowers for a centerpiece. Throw in some cloves and cinnamon sticks for added flair. For a dash of festivity, use oranges with cloves in them for place card settings."
- Christine Estep, Jackson Thomas Interiors
Sift through the closet
"Use a vintage plaid throw as a tablecloth or runner. Or decorate a small tabletop tree with jewelry or ribbon."
- Katie Schroder, Atelier Interior Design
"Repurpose one of your favorite scarves as a cozy centerpiece runner."
- Gita Jacobson, In The Deets
Forage in the yard
“Instead of placing a star at the top of my Christmas tree, I'll take a handful of fallen sticks and tie them together at the top of the tree with a raffia bow. I'll also layer pine cones throughout my tree to balance out the glass ornaments for an organic, natural feel.
- Wendy Berry, W Design Interiors
“I gather sticks cedar branches, along with magnolia, holly, boxwood and pine. I spread them around the bases of containers or arrange them in colorful tea tins. It’s an easy way to bring in greenery without spending too much money."
- Susan Jamieson, Bridget Beari Designs
“I love to add a garland of fresh greens around my dining room chandelier and hang ornaments from it. The fresh scent mixed with holiday cooking is wonderful."
"Scatter some festive items that aren’t necessarily holiday themed. For example, we’ll set out some naturally shed antlers in the fall or a tuxedo hat around Christmas. I’ll mix in a few of these types of things that feel seasonally appropriate but aren’t necessarily traditional holiday decor."
- Summer Thornton, Summer Thornton Design
"Give a corner of your home a holiday touch with just a handful of tweaks. We made a sitting area more festive by adding new pillows (they needn’t have an overt holiday motif – a wintery look works just as well), some evergreen cuttings from the yard (with a few sprigs of berries), a stack of wrapped gifts, a scarf and bow for our deer, and a teddy bear found in the attic."
– Chris Stout-Hazard, Roger + Chris
"Gather objects with a similar color scheme. I pull out all of my white and silver anything and group them together - candle holders, vases, pots, ribbon. Then I go to my neighbors' yards for magnolia and holly cuttings and get laurel out of my own yard. I just keep everything green, white and silver - jumbled together it works."
- Lesley Glotzl
"Repurpose a metallic vessel into a vase for displaying rich greenery or arrangements of holiday objects. A brass champagne cooler, a bright silver trophy cup or even small copper mugs could work perfectly. Add fresh pops of red with cranberries, pomegranates, deep-red apples or even a few red roses."
- Kerrie Kelly, Kerrie Kelly Design Lab
You may have dreams of decorating your home like it’s a display window at a fancy department store, but then reality strikes: You’ve still got gift shopping and wrapping to do, holiday parties to attend and host … not to mention your everyday life to live.
Don’t get overwhelmed. Go for intentional minimalism. Some years, less is more.
Simple decor can still have a big impact - not the least of which is relieving you of some holiday hustle and bustle. All you need to do is hone in on sprucing up three key areas in your home.
Target your tree
The most obvious place to start is your Christmas tree. For an easy, fuss-free tree, go with a monochromatic color scheme.
Metallic ornaments give your tree extra glitz and seasonal sparkle.
Another option is to use all neutral colors so you don’t have to worry about balancing a color palette or tree placement - it will coordinate with any room’s normal decor.
Make your mantel magical
If you have a fireplace in your home, the mantel is an ideal spot to bring a little holiday cheer, but don’t make it too complicated.
Cotton branches intertwined with silver artificial garland.
Choose a statement-making garland to hang or drape across the top. Place some candles on the mantel to light at night, and you’re good to go.
Top off your table
The holidays are a prime time for entertaining, hosting and gathering around the table. So bring seasonal flair to your table with a beautiful garland, which can go a long way as a table runner.
A garland made of magnolia leaves and evergreen creates a dramatic table runner.
Make the decor as simple as placing a lush garland in the center of your table and mixing in candles for added ambiance.
Decorating for the holidays doesn’t have to be a chore. Focus on these three spots, and your home will feel magical and holiday-ready in no time.
Mortgage rates fell this week, reversing a gradual upward trend to reach their lowest levels in two weeks.
Once again, it was the ongoing saga of U.S.-China trade talks that drove most of the market's movements. The discussions have shown signs of progress lately, which contributed to modest increases in bond yields and thus mortgage rates.
However, despite growing optimism and the tentative agreement of an initial deal, the talks failed to yield meaningful developments in recent weeks. Ambiguities regarding the tentative deal's details have thrown a wrench into the proceedings and reinjected doubts among investors, driving them to safer assets and nudging mortgage rates down.
It's likely that market movements will be modest heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, but the possibility of trade-related developments will keep investors on their toes.
What's more, rates are likely to respond to key readings on manufacturing and consumer spending, both due in the next seven days.
Hosting a holiday gathering can be a lot of fun, but perhaps a bit intimidating, too. You want your house to look its best, but now isn’t the time to undertake any major updates.
Chances are, you’re busy enough get ready for the event. So, focus on just the areas of your house where your guests will spend time.
Whether you’re a first-time party host with a few jitters or an old pro looking for some new ideas, these tips will help you ensure that your home is ready for any gathering.
Light the way
The sun sets early this time of year, so it’s important to make sure the entrance to your home is clean and well-lit.
If you have a large front yard, focus on the entryway and the path leading up to it. Install porch lights or replace the bulbs if needed. Cut back any shrubbery that is obstructing the walkway.
On the day of your party, open the blinds on the front windows so your guests can see into your warm, festive-looking home as they approach. It’s a great way to create a sense of welcoming anticipation.
Pro tip: The easiest way to create instant lighting for walkways and paths is with the solar lights that you just stick into the ground. The sun does the rest of the work!
Take care of the bottom line
Our mothers used to say this, and it’s true: If your floors are spotless, they make your whole house look cleaner.
Even if you’re unable to do an in-depth house cleaning before your gathering, make sure your floors have been cleaned before that first guest steps over the threshold.
Pro tip: If you have carpeting, clean the carpets a minimum of three days ahead of your affair so they have time to dry fully.
Brighten up your bathroom
If you’re bothered by grimy-looking grout in your bathroom, try this easy, inexpensive, and non-toxic method to get rid of it nearly instantly: Just spray on some full-strength hydrogen peroxide, let it sit for 10 minutes, and then wipe clean. That's it!
Next, add some flowers, holiday decorations or pictures on the wall to further spiff up your powder room, and it will be ready for your guests.
Pro tip: Get the buildup out of a slow-moving sink drain with a Zip-It. This inexpensive tool looks like a giant zip-tie. You just work it down into the drain to pull up hair clogs - all the other gunky stuff will come up with it.
Tune up kitchen appliances
Your kitchen appliances will be the workhorses of your holiday party, whether you’re hosting a big family dinner or a cocktail party. You want them to be fully functioning and ready for action.
Make sure all stove burners are working. Now’s the time to clean the oven if you haven't done that for a while.
Clean out the refrigerator, and check to see that the fridge and freezer are running at their optimal temperatures.
Make sure your dishwasher is in good working order. You can clean it easily with a dishwasher cleaner that you run through a cycle.
Pro tip: Sharp knives will make easy work of preparing the big meal. Make sure all your kitchen knives are newly sharpened, and also check the batteries in your electric carving knife, if you have one.
Make your space kid-friendly
If you make your home welcoming for children, you’ll ensure their parents have a great time as well.
If you happen to have kids that are the same ages as your young guests, you’re in luck. But if not, think about adding some considerate touches that will make parents more comfortable and alleviate kid boredom.
Here are some ideas to get you started:
Turn a spare room or an upstairs bedroom into a private nursing/changing area for a new mom.
Toddlers and younger children will want to be near their parents, so a good idea for them is to set up a corner of your living or dining room with toys, books, a tablet for watching cartoons and some comfy pillows or throws.
One of our favorite strategies for older kids is to turn the dessert course into an activity. For instance, you could bake a huge batch of sugar cookies in holiday shapes, and then put out different colors of icing to let kids (and adults) go to town with decorating their own cookies.
Pro tip: If you don't have children, or if yours are older, don't forget to kid-proof your space. Put away anything expensive, breakable or unstable. Do some baby-proofing, if necessary. This way you and the parents can relax and not have to worry about safety hazards.
Kanye West may have fame and fortune galore, but that doesn’t mean the superstar can do whatever he wants. Case in point: His grand plans to build an amphitheater on his recently purchased ranch in Wyoming have ground to a halt because he hadn’t procured the proper permits.
According to the Missoulian, West had purchased the 4,500-acre Monster Lake Ranch in September, and had submitted an application to build a 70,684-square-foot amphitheater on the property. But rather than wait for the approval to come through, he broke ground anyway.
County officials visited the site, saw that work was already in progress, and said it had to stop, pronto.
West will now need to submit a new building permit application before construction can continue—a decision that has been applauded by building experts since it sends the message that no one, not even celebrities, should be able to break ground and build without the proper paperwork.
“City officials showed Kanye West no favoritism, which is very refreshing for most of us,” Benjamin Ross, a real estate agent with Mission Real Estate Group in Texas, told realtor.com®. “Without proper permits, anyone, including Kanye West, must cease all construction immediately. Kanye should be thankful they caught him early.”
If the violation was detected further down the road, Ross adds, “it could have cost him big.”
What does ‘breaking ground’ mean?
Although it has an official ring to it, “breaking ground” basically means you’ve begun construction, which typically starts by preparing the earth on which a structure will be built.
“’Breaking ground’ is a common term because most projects start with digging something like a foundation or sewer lines,” says Tyler Drew, a California-based real estate developer.
The process also helps contractors and homeowners know what to expect on the land where they’re building.
“Breaking ground means you can obtain more information about the site and see where potential issues may come up,” says Jared Duff, owner of Kraftsmen, a Windsor, CT–based home remodeling company.
Can any work be done before a permit is procured? Technically, no.
“By law, no work is allowed to be started on any property without obtaining a permit from the local building department. Period,” Duff says.
What happens if you break ground without a permit
While breaking ground without a permit might not seem like a big deal, West could be in for a harsh reality check.
“Breaking ground without a permit is not just foolish but also illegal,” Duff says.
Permits ensure that no issues exist underground with electrical wires, gas or plumbing lines, conservation land, or endangered species. If an accident occurs as a result of construction, a permitless homeowner would be liable.
“Permits keep the homeowner and the contractor protected under the state’s contractor code laws,” Duff adds.
Homeowners without permits could face fines or delays, or projects could be canceled indefinitely. Local inspectors could also direct federal officials, like from the Environmental Protection Agency, to the project. If federal inspectors find proof that a homeowner willfully violated the law, they could impose a prison sentence.
“Some state and local authorities may even mail any known suppliers, threatening them with fines if they continue to supply your job with materials,” Drew adds. “Often the local police are involved, and will drive past your site to enforce the orders.”
Get a permit before your project goes too far
The take-home lesson? If you’re gearing up for a building project, get your permits squared away—or else!
The first step is to consult with a reputable architect and builder before you put your shovel in the ground, Ross says. For renovations on existing structures, hiring a competent contractor is key. Check with your local licensing authority that the individual is a licensed general contractor in good standing.
Once you’ve chosen a contractor and architect, you’ll work out the plans for what will be built. But, before you get too far, visit your local building and zoning department to find out what permits are needed, Duff says.
“Ask if the project would be approved based on the plans,” he says. “They will steer any homeowner in the right direction and make sure they are not starting a project that can’t be completed.”
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 3.2% year-over-year in September (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 3.1% in August. Annual growth in the smaller 10-city index was unchanged from August, and was up slightly in the 20-city index (to 2.1%, from 2% in August).
Phoenix (+6%), Charlotte (+4.6%) and Tampa (+4.5%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 20-city index.
It has become clear that the housing market slowdown that has characterized much of 2019 is really much more of a stabilization than any kind of prolonged or damaging housing slump.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 3.2% year-over-year in September, slightly exceeding expectations. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices grew more slowly, at 1.5% and 2.1% year-over-year, respectively. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the 10-city index rose by 0.2% in September from August, while the 20-city index was up 0.4% over the same period.
Index
Zillow Forecast, Released 10/29/19
Actual Case-Shiller Indices,
Released 11/26/19
Historical Median Absolute Error*
10-City Composite,
Month-Over-Month (SA)
-0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
10-City Composite,
Year-Over-Year (NSA)
1.4%
1.5%
0.2%
20-City Composite,
Month-Over-Month (SA)
0%
0.4%
0.2%
20-City Composite,
Year-Over-Year (NSA)
2%
2.1%
0.1%
U.S. National
Month-Over-Month (SA)
0.1%
0.4%
0.1%
U.S. National
Year-Over-Year (NSA)
3.1%
3.2%
0.1%
*Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014.
For the third straight month, annual home price growth is near its long-term historic average, and after years of favoring sellers, market conditions are gradually becoming much more balanced. This return to a more steady-as-she-goes kind of market is likely to benefit both buyers and sellers in the longer-term. More balanced market conditions should encourage more buyers to enter the market. And would-be sellers might also be more inclined to list their homes, knowing that when they turn around to buy a home themselves conditions will be less frantic than in years past. This new dynamic would also hopefully result in more for-sale inventory, something the market desperately needs.
In the meantime, annual growth in October as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to stay steady in all three major indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, Dec. 31.
Index
Actual September
Case-Shiller Change
Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller October Indices
10-City Composite,
Month-Over-Month (SA)
0.2%
0.2%
10-City Composite,
Year-Over-Year (NSA)
1.5%
1.5%
20-City Composite,
Month-Over-Month (SA)
0.4%
0.2%
20-City Composite,
Year-Over-Year (NSA)
2.1%
2.1%
U.S. National
Month-Over-Month (SA)
0.4%
0.3%
U.S. National
Year-Over-Year (NSA)
3.2%
3.2%
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
October new home sales stood at 733,000 (SAAR), according the U.S. Census Bureau, down 0.7% from upwardly revised September numbers but up 31.6% from a year ago.
The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $316,700, down 3.5% from a year ago.
There were 322,000 new homes for sale in October, up 0.3% from September but down 3.3% from a year ago.
Aside from one disappointing month in the spring, 2019 has been a resurgent year for new home sales, and this stronger-than-expected October data — on the heels of strongly upwardly revised September data — only reinforces the trend and proves that high builder confidence is not entirely unwarranted. Yes, building conditions remain tough and the prices of land, labor and lumber are volatile. But homebuilder confidence is almost as high as it has been in more than 18 months, buoyed by their apparent expectations that people will remain eager to buy new homes through at least the beginning of 2020. Should the median price of new homes continue to flatten and stay closer to what middle-income buyers can afford – as it has for the better part of the last year and a half – this will be even more likely.
If you believe shipping container homes are a bleak industrial living solution, it’s time to take another look.
Shipping containers do make cheap and durable spaces, but function isn’t their only appeal. Because they’re modular, weatherproof, and easily modified, they can be outfitted for modern luxury living. Form and function merge to create living spaces made for maximum fun.
We found seven intriguing shipping container homes on the market right now, all ready for a buyer to sail on in.
There’s a country house in New York with its own pond that’s been featured in the New York Times, a Colorado home as luxurious as any modern farmhouse in the city, and the party-ready “Villa de Shipping Containers”—a three-unit compound in Texas with its own pool that looks like the backdrop for a spring break bash.
These seven shipping container homes aren’t just eco-friendly, they’re also a go-to housing solution for folks looking to break away from the old and try something new. Trust us, you’ll never see those corrugated steel boxes in quite the same way again.
Price: $1,650,000 Modular masterpiece: This two-bedroom, 1,350-square-foot shipping container home is brand new and sits on a third of an acre of irrigated pasture with views of Mount Sopris and Roaring Fork Valley. Huge windows bring the spectacular views inside, while wood floors and white steel walls and other modern industrial details offer plenty of luxury, even out on the range.
Price: $399,000 Country chic: This country retreat built from shipping containers was featured in the New York Times. According to the listing, it’s also been a successful vacation rental for years. Built in 2011, the two-bedroom, 1,150-square-foot home has a large deck for soaking in the mountain views. The 6-acre property also includes a pond for swimming in the summer and skating in the winter.
Price: $675,000 Triple treat: Dubbed the “Villa de Shipping Containers,” this three-unit building is proof containers can look cool. There are three bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, and more than 2,200 square feet of living space. Located just 45 minutes outside of Austin, the containers could be divided into rental units or used as a family compound.
Price: $189,900 Heat haven: When desert temperatures start soaring, Arizonans retreat to the high country. This 720-square-foot house in the northern part of the state is a cool-weather getaway with two bedrooms and one bathroom. Clean lines, large windows, and warm wood floors frame the space. A back deck running the full length of the home is an ideal spot for communing with nature—and those refreshing breezes.
Price: $350,000 Asheville artistry: This is the first shipping container home built in Asheville. The three-bedroom, 1,100-square-foot home features passive solar energy and was constructed in 2014 with reclaimed materials. The purchase includes permits, plans, and plumbing for a second unit, with its own driveway, to be built behind the home, for an income-generating opportunity.
Price: $89,000 Off-road opportunity: This one-bedroom, one-bathroom shipping container home was built in 2008 as a small residence for a couple to live in while their dream retirement home was built on this 5-acre property in California’s high desert. The home never materialized, so the container is being sold as is along with property upgrades like electricity, a 400-foot well and water tank, trenched power, and plumbing for a future build.
Price: $79,900 Bunker base: Perhaps ideal for preppers, this is a spartan affair. This one-bedroom shipping container would be an ideal hunting cabin, according to the listing, which adds that the residence was built like a bunker to withstand natural disasters. Sitting on more than 11 acres, the shipping container unit is fully insulated, has plumbing and electricity, and is located near all-terrain vehicle trails and lakes.
For many of us, the annual visit to the Christmas tree lot happens immediately after the Thanksgiving festivities—sometimes even before the leftovers are gobbled up. Buying your tree as early as possible means you’ll have your pick of the inventory. But if you’re trying to score a deal this year (and maybe you don’t mind a tree with a few bare spots), it might be worth it to hold off on buying for a few weeks.
Mobile payment company Square teamed up with the National Christmas Tree Association to determine the best time of year to buy a Christmas tree if you’re trying to save money. They analyzed the past four years of sales data from thousands of Christmas tree farmers and sellers across the country and found when prices rose—and when they fell.
Most expensive day to buy a Christmas tree
Hands down the most expensive day to buy a tree is Cyber Monday. Sales data shows that Christmas tree prices start off high on Black Friday, when the average cost of a tree is $79. By Cyber Monday, the price increases to $84.
When to buy to save a buck
Of course, Christmas trees lose their value as the holiday itself approaches. A tree for sale on Dec. 26 is practically worthless. So it stands that the cheapest day to buy a Christmas tree is on Christmas Eve.
If you’re happy to go without a tree until then, you can snag one the night of Santa’s visit for as little as $50, says Sara Vera, a data analyst at Square. However, if you’re looking for a decent-quality tree at a reasonable price, try pinpointing the week before Christmas.
“For those that want to hold out for the best deals, we see a seasonal savings of almost 30% for those who purchase the week before Christmas,” says Vera.
Location matters
Location can also dictate a Christmas tree’s price. The trees you find in a lot are grown from seed, taking about 10 years to reach full size. After the firs are harvested, they are wrapped in netting and shipped to vendors across the country. So the closer you live to a tree farm, the cheaper it is to ship the trees to you, which could contribute to a tree’s lower price.
Similarly, smaller trees cost less because they usually spent less time growing to maturity, says Tim O’Connor, executive director of the NCTA, which is based in Littleton, CO.
Price varies by region
Square data also shows that trees purchased in the South are the most expensive, coming in at an average of about $99 while trees in the Midwest are just $73 on average.
Prices also range depending on the variety of trees and where in your area you choose to buy a tree. In general, Fraser firs are the most expensive while noble firs are the most affordable.
Michael May, owner of Lazy Acres Farm, in Chunky, MS, says the trees grown on his farm are priced according to height. For example, a 6- to 8-foot tree ranges in cost from $46 to $60.
“The taller the tree, the more of an investment for the farmer and therefore the higher the price tag,” he says.
Taking care of your tree
The average tree will stay fresh and green in your home for up to three weeks, depending on when it was cut and purchased, according to O’Connor.
So you want to select a tree that looks green and fresh with soft, pliable needles. Once you’ve selected your tree, ask to have a small round of the trunk trimmed off with a chain saw. This will help the tree absorb water and stay fresh.
At home, keep your tree away from south-facing windows, fireplaces, or heating ducts which might dry it out. Keep the basin in your tree stand full of water to keep the needles from turning brittle; never let the water level dip below the base of the tree.
After nearly a decade of ever-escalating home prices and frenzied bidding wars, many buyers are wondering if finding an affordable piece of real estate has become about as likely as discovering a mint condition Honus Wagner baseball card in your stuff drawer, a double eagle coin on your dresser, or a unicorn in your driveway.
But wait! The list of markets where folks can score a home without shattering the bank is, in fact, growing. About 81% of housing markets have become more affordable since the beginning of the year, according to a realtor.com® report.
Reality check: This doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s suddenly a cinch to become a homeowner in these areas, only that it’s getting a little better for tapped-out buyers. And in a hot market, every little bit helps.
So we decided to take a deep dive into where home affordability is increasing—and decreasing—the most. To figure this out, we looked at home prices as well as local household income in the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the third quarter of the year.* (Metros include the main city and the surrounding towns, suburbs, and smaller cities.)
So what’s driving the more affordable side of the equation?
“Mortgage rates are much lower than they were, and incomes have actually grown this year for most Americans,” says George Ratiu, realtor.com®’s senior economist. “Those two things combined have led to an improvement in affordability for home buyers.”
Nationally, affordability rose the most in predominantly midsized cities, many in the Midwest and South. These places tend to have strong economies and job markets and a larger supply of available homes for sale.
With the potential to make good money, more buyers in these areas are positioned to become homeowners or to trade up to nicer residences.
In most of these markets, millennials looking for homes where they can raise growing families are still competing with Generation Xers searching for move-up residences, and baby boomers wanting to find their forever abodes.
But in most cases, inventory’s not plunging by the double digits, which leads to insane price increases. (The one exception on our list was Jackson, MS, No. 8, where the number of homes for sale was down a steep 14.5% in October compared to a year ago.)
The inventory situation is trending in a whole different direction, however, in markets where homes are becoming less affordable.
Affordability primarily dropped in smaller cities with good job markets—places that are growing in popularity with cost-conscious buyers from other parts of the country. These cities tend to be far from the bigger, more expensive metros.
The influx of new residents is putting the squeeze on inventory, meaning that the number of homes for sale plummets and that prices spike.
“Before the recession, a lot of young professionals flocked to coastal cities looking for better-paying jobs and an urban lifestyle,” says Ratiu. “What we’re seeing now is a lot of the same professionals, approaching 40, with families and kids, are returning to their hometowns in the Midwest and South, looking for a better quality of life and a more affordable housing market.”
OK, so let’s take a deeper look—first at the places where buying a house is getting a bit easier.
Where has it become more affordable to buy a home?
More affordable metros
Tony Frenzel
Metropolitan area
Median home list price**
Percentage of homes available at the median income
Where should buyers on a more limited budget go? They might want to head to the heart of the Rust Belt, to Allentown, PA, a one-time industrial powerhouse that fell on hard times, inspired a catchy-but-depressing Billy Joel song, and is now staging a strong comeback. Affordability in the rebounding area improved the most compared to the rest of the nation.
Already-low real estate prices in the former steel town slipped almost 1% in October compared to the previous year, according to realtor.com data.
The median price was $224,950—38.7% less than the national median of $312,000. The low prices meant that middle-income buyers in Allentown could afford 59% of the properties in the metro.
“Lately more than ever, I’ve been working with people relocating to our area,” says Allentown real estate agent Faith Brenneisen of Keller Williams Real Estate.
About a third of her clients are professionals, either starting out their careers or beginning to contemplate retirement and coming from pricier New Jersey or the Washington, DC, area suburbs.
“They come here, and they can get similar jobs with less of a commute, a better quality of life, and a more distinguished home—for a much more affordable price tag.”
She noted Allentown’s convenient location, about 90 miles west of New York City and 60 miles north of Philadelphia. The area also boasts plenty of outdoor activities, such as fishing, hiking, and skiing. New businesses are moving into Allentown’s downtown area, helping to revitalize the city.
“You can live in a three-bedroom Cape Cod home in a cute West End neighborhood in Allentown for $200,000,” says Brenneisen. “And you can walk to restaurants and shopping and theater.”
In Des Moines, which placed just behind Allentown in affordability gains, median-income buyers could afford 56% of homes on the market. That’s because a current surge of available homes, thanks to heavy sales activity, resulted in an 8.1% annual drop in prices.
Add in the metro’s booming job market, and the result is that more folks can finally get into the housing market. (The financial firm Principal Financial Group is headquartered in Des Moines, and the companies Nationwide Insurance, UPS, and John Deere have operations there.)
With 5.7% more homes for sale year over year, they don’t have to bid up the prices to score the keys to a new abode.
“More people are at a point where they’re comfortable selling,” says Paul Walter, a Des Moines-based real estate agent at Re/Max Real Estate Group.
Walter works with a lot of millennial buyers moving out of their apartments and into single-family homes as they begin to start families.
“A lot of people have enough [home] equity, and they’re comfortable enough with the economy to move up [into nicer houses]—or, if they’re retirees, to downsize.”
There were a few surprises on our list. For example, it’s getting more affordable to buy a home in—wait for it—the nation’s most notoriously expensive market, San Francisco!
But take that with a shaker full of salt. The median price in that metro is still an astronomical $940,000—well out of reach of the vast majority of those who are not millionaires. If they’re earning the median household income for the Bay Area, buyers can only afford 18% of the listings available.
In San Francisco, lower mortgage rates have played a role in boosting the area’s affordability, says Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst in the Bay Area for the real estate brokerage Compass.
Plus, after years of sky-high annual price rises, the market has flattened, he says. Even in the United States’ tech and startup capital, home prices can’t go up forever.
“People bumped their heads up against the ceiling of what they could (or were willing to) pay,” Carlisle says,
Sorry to put a damper on things—now it’s time to zero in on places where it’s becoming harder to make that big down payment.
Where has it become less affordable to buy a home?
Less affordable metros
Tony Frenzel
Metropolitan area
Median home list price**
Percentage of homes available at the median income
Just because it’s getting a little easier to buy a home in many parts of the country, it doesn’t mean the real estate market is finally hunky-dory for aspiring homeowners who aren’t raking in high six-figure salaries.
Only 18% of markets are truly affordable for the folks who live there, according to the report. Even in metros showing signs of improvement, home prices are still well out of reach for many regular folks.
Metros where it’s becoming even harder for locals to purchase a home are more often than not seeing big inventory decreases. That lack of supply leads to surging prices—which effectively puts the kibosh on any dreams of homeownership.
“Demand has been so strong, it’s pushing demand up,” says realtor.com’s Ratiu. “More people want to buy homes than there are homes for sale.”
Tulsa‘s affordability dropped the most in the nation, as its home inventory plummeted. It nose-dived roughly 26% in October compared to the previous year, according to realtor.com data. That’s thanks to a rush of opportunistic buyers entering the market when mortgage interest rates fell.
First-time buyers and investors gobbled up whatever they could find, leading prices to shoot up by nearly 15% in October compared to the previous year. Tulsa’s median list price was $246,700 in October, according to realtor.com data.
The scarcity of available homes leads to bidding wars. Tulsa real estate agent Suzanne Rentz is now getting up to nine or 10 offers within 72 hours on properties in the most desirable areas.
In the rest of the metros on this list, the number of homes for sale also fell by the double digits. While that’s great for sellers who may not have to make all those needed repairs, or knock down the price, it’s bad news for buyers as they compete against one another.
The number of homes for sale also fell in all of the metros where affordability worsened the most. Inventory was down nearly 20% in El Paso, TX; 13.7% in Winston-Salem, NC; 20.1% in Rochester, NY; and 19.4% in Philadelphia in October compared to the previous year.
* To come up with our findings, we examined how many home listings are affordable to buyers at different income levels. Then we created an index and affordability score to figure out which metros saw the biggest increases and decreases.
** Realtor.com home list price data as of October.
Over the next 20 years, more than a quarter (27.4 percent) of the nation's currently owner-occupied homes are likely to hit the market as their current owners pass away or otherwise vacate their homes.
Places likely to be most impacted by this upcoming Silver Tsunami include both retirement hubs (Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Tucson) and regions where young residents have left (Cleveland, Dayton, Knoxville and Pittsburgh). The impact of the Silver Tsunami is also likely to vary greatly across different areas within metros.
The places likely to be least impacted include those with vibrant economies featuring fast growth and affordable housing that act as magnets for younger residents (Atlanta, Austin, Dallas and Houston).
Housing released by the Silver Tsunami will provide a substantial and sustained boost to housing supply, comparable in magnitude to the fluctuations that new home construction experienced in the 2000s boom-bust cycle.
It seems likely that, in the coming two decades, the construction industry will need to place a greater focus on updating existing properties, in addition to simply building new homes.
The massive Baby Boomer generation has already begun aging into retirement, and will begin passing away in large numbers in coming decades – releasing a flood of currently owner-occupied homes that could hit the market. That could help end the last few years' inventory drought, as well as a more fundamental shortage of homes in certain places.
This Silver Tsunami of homes coming to market could be a good substitute for new home construction, which has been in short supply for the past decade in large part because of difficult-to-overcome challenges faced by builders.
Currently, 33.9 percent of owner-occupied U.S. homes are owned by residents aged 60 or older, and 55.2 percent by residents aged 50 or older. As these households age and begin vacating housing, that could represent upwards of 20 million homes hitting the market through the mid-2030s.
But while virtually all areas will feel the effects to some degree, this wave won't hit all at once and won't strike all markets equally. Certain markets will be more impacted than others, as will certain kinds of areas within a given market.
The Silver Tsunami will rise progressively in the 2020s and 2030s
An estimate based on mortality data suggests that the Silver Tsunami will hit in earnest as the number of seniors aged 60 or older who pass away each year rises during the 2020s and 2030s. An alternate estimate using data on recent homeownership trends by age and cohort suggests that homes released by 2027 will comprise about one-in-eight (12 percent) of today’s owner-occupied housing stock,[1] and that by 2037 that share will more than double to 27.4 percent.
Older communities and retirement hubs hit hardest; Affordable, growing cities attractive to the young least-affected
The Silver Tsunami will strike nationwide, impacting between one-fifth and one-third of the current owner-occupied housing stock in every metro analyzed.
Well-known retirement destinations, including Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Tucson, will experience the most housing turnover in the wake of the Silver Tsunami. If the number of future retirees choosing to make these places home during their golden years fails to match generations past and local housing demand fades, these areas may end up with excess housing.
Regions including Cleveland, Dayton, Knoxville and Pittsburgh are also more likely to see bigger effects from the Silver Tsunami. Younger residents have tended to leave these areas in recent decades, in many cases pursuing better job opportunities elsewhere, leaving older generations to make up a larger share of those who remain.
And some regions will see smaller-than-typical shares of the owner-occupied housing stock released. These include Salt Lake City (where fewer than one-in-five householders (18%) is 55 or older, compared to 28% nationwide), Atlanta, Austin, Dallas and Houston – all of which tend to be fast-growing and relatively affordable. Because they are both economically vibrant and largely willing and able to expand their developed footprints, these metros offer an affordable alternative to expensive coastal cities. The expensive coastal cities are also attractive to many residents, but they impose burdensome housing costs – especially to younger residents just starting out. In contrast, cheap but vibrant areas generally tend to attract the young and have a younger age distribution as a result, reducing their exposure to the Silver Tsunami.
Small, long-exclusive enclaves in many cities will experience rapid turnover
Still, the differences in the share of homes released by seniors between metros are small compared to the differences within them. The most-impacted areas within a given region often contain formally-defined or informal-but-de-facto retirement communities, typically on the fringes of larger metro areas in locations rich with second homes (and former second homes turned primary residence in retirement). Examples include Palm Springs, east of Los Angeles; The Hamptons, at the far eastern end of Long Island in New York; and the island of Nantucket off the coast of Cape Cod, southeast of Boston.
But in many cases, the most-impacted areas appear to be pricey, relatively exclusive enclaves of older residents within otherwise mixed surroundings, including the Upper East Side in Manhattan and the Lafayette-Orinda-Walnut Creek area east of San Francisco. These areas have been more affluent and expensive compared to their surroundings for decades, which has made them less affordable to the young. Younger, more-affordable neighborhoods are likely to have a younger mix of residents and can therefore expect to be less impacted by the Silver Tsunami.
Unlike popular retirement communities that may suffer from a dearth of housing demand down the line, these older, long-affluent enclaves may see more demand pour in from neighboring areas and more residents churn when the Silver Tsunami brings more homes on the market.
Silver Tsunami as substitute for new home construction?
The release of older residents’ homes into the market adds net supply to the market, similar to new construction (most existing home sales involve a seller who is almost simultaneously also a buyer, contributing to both the supply and demand for housing).[2] That is important because new construction has failed to return to its historical production levels in the years following the Great Recession, and home builders face challenges that are likely to endure for a long period. These include construction labor issues and difficulties accessing capital, as well as issues related to the shift in demand towards locations closer to the metropolitan core – where vacant lots are scarce and re-development is more constrained than ever.
New home construction activity skews towards the metropolitan periphery. But much of the existing housing set to be released by seniors in coming decades is better-located to meet growing demand for living closer to the center.
Finally, more homes coming onto the market in high-demand areas – if combined with local changes to land-use policy that allow for more density – could spur more construction of small- and mid-sized multi-unit properties by providing developers more opportunities to acquire lots (and by making it easier to assemble them into larger ones).
How will the Silver Tsunami affect the housing market at large?
In the decade from 2007 to 2017, roughly 730,000 U.S. homes were released into the market each year by seniors aged 60 or older. From 2017 to 2027 and from 2027 to 2037 that number is set to rise to 920,000 and 1.17 million per year, respectively, an addition of about 440,000 homes annually by the second decade.
There is no doubt the Silver Tsunami will substantially boost the supply of housing. But will that be enough to counteract rates of new construction that are currently low in historical terms? New homes peaked at 1.28 million sales per year in 2005 and hit bottom in 2011 at 310,000 new homes sold, a difference of almost 1 million per year (in 2018, it clocked in at 620,000 – double recent lows, but still well off peak levels). A swing of that magnitude is larger than the Silver Tsunami’s boost of 440,000 homes per year.
But because the Silver Tsunami’s boost to the housing supply will be sustained over the course of several decades, rather than the sometimes-sharp year-to-year fluctuations in new home construction, it makes more sense to compare longer time periods. From 2000-2009, spanning the last decade's housing boom and the early years of the subsequent bust, an average of 900,000 new homes were sold each year. Between 2009 and 2018, spanning the bulk of the bust and most of the sluggish recovery that followed, there were only 450,000 new home sales per year, on average. The difference of 450,000 new home sales per year is comparable in magnitude to the Silver Tsunami’s boost.
The Silver Tsunami will boost the supply of housing on a magnitude comparable to the fluctuations that new home construction experienced in the 2000s boom-bust cycle. Of course, whether that means there will be a glut or a continued shortage of housing depends on how new construction fares and, crucially, on future demand for housing. Whether housing released by the Silver Tsunami is appropriately located, priced and to meet future demand could be an important issue as well.
What seems most likely amid all the uncertainty is that, in the coming two decades, the construction industry will need to place a greater emphasis than before on updating existing properties, in addition to building new ones. The construction industry may be bracing for a tsunami of old-new housing supply that crowds out new development, but renovation could be where the real silver is at.
* * *
Notes:
[1] The year 2027 was chosen because it is one decade on from the most recent owner-occupied housing number available from the 2017 American Community Survey.
[2] The sale of older residents’ homes as well as newly-built ones also have a disproportionate, positive effect on the volume of home sales, because they set off vacancy chains in which their buyer often turns around to sell their old home, whose buyer does the same. Estimates with respect to new construction indicate that on average every new home built corresponds to 2.43 home sales, i.e. the new home plus 1.43 existing home sales of those moving along the chain. Houses released by seniors are likely to do the same.
Data and methodology:
The number of owner-occupied homes whose residents will be over 60 and pass each year is estimated using a mortality-based approach:
This approach uses the 2017 1-year American Community Survey (ACS) in conjunction with the 2016 Social Security Administration period life table for the U.S. to select the individual over age 25 with the longest expected remaining lifespan in each owner-occupant household based on age and sex observed in 2017. It then assigns the household the selected individual's hazard of death each year thereafter, and sums the (weighted) hazards of individuals aged 60 or more in each future year to obtain the national number ofcurrently owner-occupied homes whose resident with the longest expected remaining lifespan will be 60 and is estimated to pass away each year through 2040. The results reported in the first chart, above, are based on a random 10% national sample of households.
This approach does not estimate the number of homes released into the market by senior residents passing, because it abstracts from all the reasons that households may exit owner-occupancy aside from mortality. Nevertheless, the approach is informative with respect to the timing of the Silver Tsunami.
For simplicity, this approach abstracts changes over time in mortality rates, taking those from 2016 as fixed, as well as the case in which the individual with the longest expected remaining lifespan in a household is not the last to die. It also abstracts from international migration, and from differences in mortality rates across race and across locations within the U.S. Finally, it is constrained by observed homeownership as of 2017: Households whose residents will be 60 or more and pass away by 2040 only influence the estimate if they were already owner-occupants as of 2017, but not if they would become owner-occupants after 2017. Similarly, exits from owner-occupancy prior to passing by households that were owner-occupants as of 2017 is not reflected in the estimate.
The number of owner-occupied homes whose residents were 60 and passed each year from 2007 to 2017 cannot be observed directly because deaths cannot be observed in the ACS. Instead, the mortality-based approach is applied to the data observed in the 2007 1-year ACS and again to that observed in the 2017 1-year ACS, and the number of owner-occupied homes whose residents were 60 and estimated to pass is average across those two years and taken as the estimate for the 2007-2017 period.
The number of owner-occupied homes to be released into the market by residents aged 60 or more is estimated with an owner-occupancyretention-based approach:
This approach assigns every owner-occupant household observed in the 2007 and 2017 1-year editions of the ACS an age based on its youngest member over the age of 25, and uses that age to assign each household to one of the following cohorts “born before 1927”, “born 1927-1936”, “born 1937-1946”, … , “born 1987-1996”. Following a recent study by Fannie Mae, the 2007-2017 retention rate for each cohort is defined and observed as the ratio of the pooled number of owner-occupant households in the cohort as of 2017 and as of 2007. The retention rate reflects households whose members have passed away, as well as those whose members have moved into or out of homeownership and into or out of the region. The future retention rate of every cohort in the 2017-2027 and 2027-2037 periods is then estimated, by assumption, to be the same as that of the correspondingly-aged cohorts circa 2007-2017. For example, the retention rate of the 1957-1966 cohort during the 2017-2027 period is assumed to be the same as the retention rate observed for the 1947-1956 cohort during the 2007-2017 period. To estimate the number of homes released by seniors in the 2017-2027 and 2027-2037 periods, the number of owner-occupant households in each cohort is observed in 2017 for the relevant geography (nation, metro area or public-use microdata area) and then projected forward using retention rates estimated nationally, because retention rates for finer geographies increasingly reflect mobility of households into and out of region, which is not of interest here. The number of homes not retained is then summed up across all cohort-by-period cells in which the cohort is aged 60 or more at the start of each period.
This approach, too, abstracts from changes over time in mortality rates, taking those from 2016 as fixed. It is also muddied by mobility into and out of the U.S., and by the Great Recession, which occurred during the 2007-2017 period in which retention rates are observed-to the extent that older cohorts lost their homes. Having said that, members of cohorts over 60 at the time were less likely to lose their homes than members of younger cohorts who were more likely to have purchased during the years preceding the Great Recession.
Both approaches are conservative in that they assign households' death hazards (mortality-based approach) or cohort (owner-occupancy retention-based approach) based on the member with the longest expected remaining lifespan or the youngest member (over age 25), respectively. Both these assignments are both likely to influence the resulting estimates. Inasmuch as the householder tends to be the oldest member of the household, these choices are likely to reduce estimates. Whether a home is in fact likelier have its residents pass and/or be released into the market when the oldest adult-typically the householder-or the youngest adult-typically the spouse-passes, is unclear. Using the householder’s age is no more and no less correct than the alternative assignment used here. The matter becomes more complex when the youngest adult is not the householder or their spouse, but a member of another generation. In such cases, the family relationship between household members and their choices after inheritance, for example, are also not clear.
Metro-level estimates of the cumulative number of owner-occupied homes whose residents will be over 60 and pass by 2037 using the mortality-based approach and metro-level estimates of the cumulative number homes released into the market by residents aged 60 or more by 2037 using the owner-occupancy retention-based approach differ. The former tends to be lower than the latter because households often exit owner-occupancy prior to passing. However, the estimates are very similar in terms of the ranking of metro areas, having a correlation of 0.87.
The metro areas referenced in estimates and maps are Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs) where applicable, and Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) elsewhere. The list of metro areas is limited to those with population greater than 1 million as of the 2010 Census.
New home sale numbers are drawn from the U.S. Census’ new residential sales series (C25), obtained via Moody’s economy.com service.
