- Zillow expects July existing home sales to rise 1.9% from June to 5.37 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). That would represent a 0.4% decrease from July 2018.
- We estimate new home sales will climb 0.2% to 647,000 units (SAAR).
Mortgage rates have fallen dramatically over the last nine months, almost to three-year lows, but so far have not been followed by an uptick in existing home sales. With the busy spring shopping season come and gone, it's unlikely that we'll see a sharp increase in sales volume. However, there are signs of mounting sales momentum. Inventory levels have started to grow, driven largely by an influx of new listings on the market. Mortgage rates have been low for months now, but recent declines appear to have (finally) incented people to enter the market, and for-purchase mortgage applications have risen steadily. It's not the steep increase that some experts had hoped for, but July's sales figures may well show that the housing market still has some fight left.
For now, it's steady as she goes for sales of new home sales, which have been buoyed by low mortgage rates but hindered by low construction. And as always, look to the revisions: Despite a positive headline figure, June's new home sales – up 7% from May – came on heavy downward revisions to May's figures. New home sale counts are still ahead of where they were last year, but volume failed to build on the positive momentum generated in the winter. Home construction levels continue to languish, although encouraging building permits, strong home completions trends and steady builder confidence, suggest that activity may pick up in coming months.
The post Forecasts for Existing and New Home Sales (July 2019) appeared first on Zillow Research.
via Forecasts for Existing and New Home Sales (July 2019)
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