New Listings of High-End Homes Surge to Near Year-Ago Levels, Reversing an Early Spring Trend

• As of the week ending June 20, new listings of more-affordable homes were down 29% from a year ago, compared to just a 9% difference between this year and last for the most-expensive listings.
• In some large markets, including New York, Miami and San Francisco, new listings of pricier homes as of June 20 were higher than year-ago levels.

In a reversal of the prevailing trend from earlier in the spring, newly listed homes in the most-affordable price ranges are now down far more compared to a year ago than listings in more-expensive tiers.

As of the week ending June 20, new listings of more-affordable homes were down 29% from a year ago, compared to just a 9% difference between this year and last for the most-expensive listings, according to a Zillow analysis of listings data by price quintile. 

For most of April and May, listings of expensive homes slowed earlier and by much more compared to a year ago than more affordable homes. Earlier in the spring, the roughly 30% shortfall from a year ago in cheaper listings seemed relatively shallow compared to the more than 50% maximum annual decline recorded by the most-expensive listings. But as May turned into June, listings at the top of the market changed course and surged to levels relatively close to last year's, even as new listings at the bottom of the market remained depressed.

The national trend is echoed in many large markets nationwide — and in some, including New York, Miami and San Francisco, new listings of pricier homes as of June 20 were even above year-ago levels. Among the 35 largest metros, Detroit is the only one in which the most-expensive tier of new listings falls short of last year by more than the lowest tier. And in Denver, listings of both the least-expensive and most-expensive listings are above last years levels.

Recent data shows an acceleration in the median price of homes on the market, and may raise the question of why prices are rising — and rather quickly — despite widespread unemployment, reduced market activity and expectations for modest home value declines through the fall. The most logical answer is unchanged from earlier in the year: As the composition of listings on the market changes, so too does the median price of listed homes. So while it may seem as though prices are "rising,"  that's because more-expensive homes are making up a larger share of what's available to buy. 

At the beginning of the U.S. coronavirus outbreak, there was a brief spike in the median price of listed homes followed by an apparent softening that lasted into May — as fewer expensive homes were put up for sale, the median list price shifted to a lower price point. Now the pendulum is beginning to swing the other way again. It could be that sellers at higher price points are finding it easier to move now than it was earlier this spring, and are listing their homes at rates closer to normal. But at lower price points, it seems the opposite is true: owners of these homes may be delaying moves for any number of potential reasons including financial constraints and/or health concerns, pushing up the median list price.

Methodology

In this analysis, we segmented the housing market in each metropolitan area into fifths based on home value (using the Zestimate in order to get the most complete universe of home values). The national quintiles are composites of metro-level quintiles, so that tiered effects are not swayed simply by changes in one large, expensive metro. After determining tiers, we observed the daily count of new for-sale listings coming from each tier. Counts are day-of-week adjusted and smoothed using a seven-day trailing average.

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