July Case-Shiller Results and August Forecast: Pushing Decisively Higher

• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 4.8% year-over-year in July (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 4.3% in June.
• Annual growth was up from June in the smaller 20-city index (to 3.9%, from 3.5%) and 10-city index (to 3.3% from 2.8%).
• Phoenix (+9.2%), Seattle (+7%), and Charlotte (+6%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 19-city index (Detroit was excluded from the 20-city index this month).

Home prices continued to push pandemic-related uncertainties aside and reach new heights into the summer months, as demand for housing outpaced supply.

The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 4.8% year-over-year in July. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices grew more slowly, at 3.3% and 3.9% year-over-year, respectively. The annual rate of growth was faster in July than in June in all three main indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the 10-city index was up 0.5%, the 20-city index was up 0.6% and the national index was up 0.4% from June.

	Zillow Forecast, Released 8/25/20	Actual Case-Shiller Indices, Released 9/29/20	Historical Median Absolute Error*
10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.0%	0.5%	0.2%
10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	2.9%	3.3%	0.2%
20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.1%	0.6%	0.2%
20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.6%	3.9%	0.1%
U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA)	4.4%	4.8%	0.1%
*Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011.  The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014.

An unprecedented lack of for-sale homes combined with persistently low mortgage rates have stoked a competition for housing in recent months that will not relent. Sales volume has held firm at a time when it would normally show signs of cooling, and home prices continue to push decisively higher. The question now is how much longer this will continue. While coronavirus-related developments will dictate the path forward for the economy, thus far, the housing market has withstood basically every obstacle that the pandemic has thrown its way, and home prices have grown without restriction. With mortgage rates poised to remain low for the near future, barring a sudden surge in inventory, it appears that upward price pressures should endure into the fall.

Annual growth in August as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the August S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, October 27.

Index	Actual July Case-Shiller Change	Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller August Indices
10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.5%	0.4%
10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.3%	3.9%
20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.6%	0.4%
20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.9%	4.5%
U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.4%	0.4%
U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA)	4.8%	5.3%

Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.

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