Barrington Homebuyers: November Case-Shiller Results and December Forecast: San Francisco Falls Out of Top Three Home-Price Gainers

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

November Case-Shiller Results and December Forecast: San Francisco Falls Out of Top Three Home-Price Gainers

The U.S. National S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index - which tracks home prices - rose 5.2 percent in November from a year earlier, below Zillow's forecast last month.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index climbed 4.7 percent annually in November, while the 10-city index rose 4.3 percent.
Zillow forecasts a steady 5.1 percent annual gain for December (results due Feb. 26).

Home prices slowed in November, rising 5.2 percent year-over-year, down from 5.3 percent in October, according to the Case-Shiller home price index. The gain was below Zillow’s forecast, which predicts a 5.1 percent gain in December.

Phoenix replaced Seattle among the country’s top three home-price gainers in October. For November, they both made the list alongside Las Vegas, and San Francisco fell off it.

Las Vegas led the way with a 12 percent year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix at 8.1 percent and Seattle at 6.3 percent. Seven of the 20 cities reported greater price increases for the year ended November 2018 than the year ended October 2018.

Today's snapshot of home sales data from November captures the well-documented market slowdown that occurred at the end of 2018 – marked by a spike in mortgage-interest rates to seven-year highs and a sure in overall stock market volatility – but does little to highlight more recent developments. After jumping in the fall, mortgage interest rates declined as the calendar turned to 2019.

Rather than a backward-facing measure of how high rates affected sale prices in November, it will be more useful to see if and how today's lower rates provide a stimulus in the months to come – especially as the market enters the busy spring home shopping season.

Mortgage rates are fairly stable for now, and the end of the federal government shutdown may re-inject some positive momentum into the market after a dismal end to 2018. Throughout the recovery, home shoppers have proven to be both remarkably sensitive to short-term volatility in rates and markets more broadly – and also to have short memories once things stabilize, however temporarily.