June Case-Shiller Results and July Forecast: Housing Continues to Withstand Pandemic

• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 4.3% year-over-year in June (non-seasonally adjusted), down from 4.5% in May.
• Annual growth was down from May in the smaller 20-city index (to 3.5%, from 3.7%) and in the 10-city index (to 2.8% from 3.1%).
• Phoenix (+9.0%), Seattle (+6.5%), and Tampa (+5.9%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 19-city index (Detroit was excluded from the 20-city index this month).

The June Case-Shiller numbers show the housing market continues to withstand the pandemic-driven blows that have caused so many other facets of the economy to suffer.

The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 4.4% year-over-year in June. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices grew more slowly, at 2.8% and 3.5% year-over-year, respectively. The annual rate of growth was lower in June than in May in the national, 10-city and  20-city indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the 10-city index was down 0.1% and 20-city index remained unchanged from May; the national index was 0.2% month-over-month.

	Zillow Forecast, Released 7/28/20	Actual Case-Shiller Indices, Released 8/25/20	Historical Median Absolute Error*
10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.1%	-0.1%	0.2%
10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	2.8%	2.8%	0.2%
20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.4%	3.5%	0.1%
U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA)	4.3%	4.4%	0.1%
*Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011.  The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014.

Mortgage rates and for-sale inventory are each plumbing new lows, ratcheting up competition for the few homes on the market. That's placed consistent upward pressure on home prices, a trend that has held through the summer. While recent data suggest headwinds such as the enduring spread of the coronavirus and uncertainty surrounding the next round of relief payments could jeopardize the path of the economic recovery, these concerns haven't materialized in home prices to this point. It could be that the housing market will eventually suffer as these concerns linger, but it appears that low rates are here to stay for now, which should continue to send prices higher.

Annual growth in July as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to speed up slightly in the 10- and 20-city indices, and stay steady in the national index. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the July S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, September 29.

Index	Actual June Case-Shiller Change	Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller July Indices
10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	-0.1%	0.0%
10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	2.8%	2.9%
20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.0%	0.1%
20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.5%	3.6%
U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.2%	0.2%
U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA)	4.4%	4.4%

Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.

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