January New Home Sales: A Kick in the Gut

• New homes sales dropped 6.9 percent in January over December, to 607,000 units (SAAR), according to the Census Bureau. They were 4.1 percent lower than a year ago.
• The median price of new homes sold in January was $317,200 (non-seasonally adjusted), down 0.6 percent from December and 3.8 percent from a year ago.
• Inventory was down 1.5 percent from December, but up 14.3 percent from a year ago.

Today's data are a bit of a kick to the gut after the market seemed to have built some momentum last month, but it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise given the state of the country in January. The partial federal government shutdown and the harsh winter weather that affected much of the country both weighed on economic activity. But our bet is that buyers will prove resilient as winter turns to spring, and throw their hats into the ring with the benefits of falling mortgage rates, falling home prices and rising inventory. As the weather warms, accompanied by still-falling mortgage rates and additional new homes, the icy conditions that buyers faced in the fall and winter appear to be thawing.

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