January Case-Shiller Results & February Forecast: Ancient History

• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 3.9% year-over-year in January (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 3.7% in December. Annual growth was also up from December in the smaller 10-city index (to 2.6%, from 2.3%) and 20-city index (to 3.1%, from 2.8%).
• Phoenix (+6.9%), Seattle (+5.1%) and Tampa (+5.1%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 20-city index.

It may have been only two months ago, but in many ways it might as well be ancient history. Today's Case-Shiller release captures data through January, so we have a way to go before we see the more-recent developments represented that have flipped the housing market, and the world, on its head.

The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 3.9% year-over-year in January. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices grew more slowly, at 2.6% and 3.1% year-over-year, respectively. The annual rate of growth was higher in January than in December in all three indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the 10- and 20-city indices were each up 0.3% from December to January; the national index was up 0.5% month-over-month.

Index	Zillow Forecast, Released 2/25/20	Actual Case-Shiller Indices, Released 3/31/20	Historical Median Absolute Error*
10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%
10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	2.8%	2.6%	0.2%
20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%
20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.2%	3.1%	0.1%
U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA)	4%	3.9%	0.1%
*Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011.  The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014.

Before the coronavirus outbreak reached U.S. soil en masse, the housing market was on stable footing and appeared to be gathering steam, as evidenced by today's release. The combination of a tight labor market and low mortgage rates dialed up the competition for the relatively few homes that were listed for sale, pushing home prices up in the process. Indeed, the world is a very different place than it was in January, but today's Case-Shiller release is sure to offer some fond memories of the not-so-distant past, and some hope that the industry can continue the growing momentum it was riding to begin the year once this crisis passes.

Annual growth in February as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate in all three major indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the February S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, April 28.

Index	Actual January Case-Shiller Change	Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller February Indices
10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.3%	0.2%
10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	2.6%	2.7%
20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.3%	0.3%
20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.1%	3.2%
U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.5%	0.4%
U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.9%	4.0%

 

 

Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.

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