- Newly listed homes were down 27.1% from a year ago in the first week of April.
- The number of fresh listings typically grows by about 50% from March 1 to early April, but this year fell 19% as the coronavirus pandemic worsened.
- As buyers and sellers adapt to social distancing restrictions, 3D Home tours are up 408% from February.
Early spring is typically a time when sellers put homes on the market en masse hoping to take advantage of the surge in buyers entering the market after shaking off the winter doldrums. But this year, new listings dropped significantly in March and early April as the U.S. coronavirus outbreak took hold.
At the beginning of March, the housing market appeared well-poised for a competitive home shopping season — home value growth accelerated in February for the first time in nearly two years, and the number of fresh listings added to the market on March 1 was 17.3% higher than a year earlier.
Little more than a month later, the outlook is much different. Nationwide, new listings were down 27.1% year-over-year on April 5.
The number of newly listed homes typically picks up in late March and early April as home shopping season kicks into gear — in 2018 and 2019, there was an average of 49.9% more fresh listings coming onto the market nationwide on April 5 compared to March 1. But this year it's been quite the opposite as many states have recommended or mandated residents mostly stay at home. New listings in the U.S. have fallen 19% from the beginning of March.
The greatest slowdowns in new listings since March 1 were seen in Detroit (down 61.8%), Pittsburgh (down 55.5%) and New York (down 49.1%). Even so, new listings were actually up or flat in 12 of the 35 largest U.S. metros, led by Phoenix (up 18.3%), Atlanta (up 15.6%), Sacramento (up 13.7%) and Minneapolis-St. Paul (up 13.7%). Still, gains in each of these 12 metros were a minimum of 14.5 percentage points below average gains during this period in 2018 and 2019.
The overall, total number of active listings on the market is also lower than a year ago, down 8.3% year-over-year as of April 5. Total U.S. inventory has grown 2.5% since March 1, a sign that homes already listed have been sitting on the market longer while buyers have pulled back. In some markets, total inventory is up by much more, including as much as 37.7% in the Seattle metro — among the large markets hit earliest by the coronavirus outbreak.
But while the coronavirus outbreak and subsequent social distancing measures have cooled the housing market considerably, it isn't completely frozen. Buyers, sellers and their agents have begun to change their behaviors as they adapt to public health requirements. The number of 3D Home tours created on Zillow has skyrocketed. The number of tours created nationwide during the last week of March was 408% greater than during an average week in February. In March, listings with 3D Home tours received about 50% more site visitors and were saved about 60% more frequently than listings without 3D Home tours.
Methodology
Daily listings metrics come from a standard universe of listings, so as to be comparable to other published monthly inventory metrics. We analyzed for-sale listings of single-family (attached and detached), condominium and cooperative homes. Listings are highly variable and highly cyclical on a weekly basis, ranging from about 7500 new listings nationally on a typical Sunday to more than 20,000 during the week and peaking at more than 35,000 on a Thursday during home shopping season. Thus, the series has been day-of-week adjusted and subsequently smoothed for interpretability on a daily basis.
- Major outliers are removed and interpolated.
- Data are day-of-week adjusted using time series decomposition with the R stats package.
- Finer inconsistencies in the series are removed using a 3-day trailing median.
- Primary smoothing is done using a 7-day trailing average.
The post Coronavirus Impact: New Listings Fall Sharply as Spring Home Shopping Season is Set to Begin appeared first on Zillow Research.
via Coronavirus Impact: New Listings Fall Sharply as Spring Home Shopping Season is Set to Begin
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