February Case-Shiller Results & March Forecast: Last Look at The World that Was

• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 4.2% year-over-year in February (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 3.9% in January. Annual growth was also up from January in the smaller 10-city index (to 2.9%, from 2.6%) and 20-city index (to 3.5%, from 3.1%).
• Phoenix (+7.5%), Seattle (+6%), Tampa (+5.2%) and Charlotte (+5.2%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 20-city index.

Today's reading of the Case-Shiller home price index for February – the last before the data begin to show effects of the coronavirus outbreak – offers a final look at a housing market that was primed for a stellar spring selling season.

The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 4.2% year-over-year in February. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices grew more slowly, at 2.9% and 3.5% year-over-year, respectively. The annual rate of growth was higher in February than in January in all three indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the 10- and 20-city indices were each up 0.4% from January; the national index was up 0.5% month-over-month.

Index	Zillow Forecast, Released 3/31/20	Actual Case-Shiller Indices, Released 4/28/20	Historical Median Absolute Error*
10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%
10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	2.7%	2.9%	0.2%
20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.2%	3.5%	0.1%
U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA)	4%	4.2%	0.1%
*Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011.  The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014.

Things were looking up for the housing market in mid-winter, with low interest rates and still-secure job prospects combining to boost demand for housing just as a growing share of millennials were looking to finally take the leap into home ownership. Teamed with record-low levels of for-sale inventory, these demand factors had begun to push home prices upward after the growth rate spent most of 2019 decelerating. The economic carnage that's occurred since, particularly in the labor markets, has been well documented and the true impact on home prices remains to be seen. But for now, today's release offers one last glimpse of what was the makings of a promising spring for housing, before the world changed.

Annual growth in February as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate in all three major indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the March S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, May 26.

Index	Actual February Case-Shiller Change	Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller March Indices
10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.4%	0.3%
10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	2.9%	3.3%
20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.4%	0.4%
20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.5%	3.8%
U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.5%	0.4%
U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA)	4.2%	4.4%

 

 

Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.

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