March Case-Shiller Results and April Forecast: Housing Maintains its Strength

• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 4.4% year-over-year in March (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 4.2% in February. Annual growth was also up from January in the smaller 10-city index (to 3.4%, from 3%) and 20-city index (to 3.9%, from 3.5%).
• Phoenix (+8.2%), Seattle (+6.9%), and Charlotte (+5.8%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 19-city index (Detroit was excluded from the 20-city index this month).

On the surface, the solid and steadily accelerating growth in home prices in March paints the picture of a housing market and an economy that was on stable footing.

The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 4.4% year-over-year in March. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices grew more slowly, at 3.4% and 3.9% year-over-year, respectively. The annual rate of growth was higher in March than in February in all three indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the 10- and 20-city indices were up 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, from February; the national index was up 0.5% month-over-month.

Index	Zillow Forecast, Released 4/28/20	Actual Case-Shiller Indices, Released 5/26/20	Historical Median Absolute Error*
10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.3%	3.4%	0.2%
20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.4%	0.5%	0.2%
20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.8%	3.9%	0.1%
U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA)	4.4%	4.4%	0.1%
*Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011.  The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014.

But in reality, the world was anything but steady in March, as the coronavirus was first starting to inflict health concerns and cause economic carnage on U.S. residents, businesses and industries. That said, relative to the broader economy, the housing market – particularly home prices – have gotten away more or less scot-free so far. The strong buyer demand heading into this crisis has held fairly steady in the months since the outbreak, as record-low mortgage rates and inventory levels have maintained competition in the markets and placed upward pressure on home prices. So much remains uncertain – including the longer-term path for home prices – but for now, competition for homes is holding strong and keeping prices afloat.

Annual growth in April as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate in the 10- and 20-city indices, and stay steady in the national index. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the April S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, June 30.

Index	Actual March Case-Shiller Change	Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller April Indices
10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.4%	0.3%
10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.4%	3.7%
20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.5%	0.3%
20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.9%	4.2%
U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.5%	0.4%
U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA)	4.4%	4.4%

 

 

Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.

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