April Case-Shiller Results and May Forecast: Housing Continues to Cruise

• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 4.7% year-over-year in April (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 4.6% in March.
• Annual growth was also up from March in the smaller 20-city index (to 4%, from 3.9%) and was unchanged in the 10-city index (3.4%).
• Phoenix (+8.8%), Seattle (+7.3%), and Minneapolis (+6.4%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 19-city index (Detroit was excluded from the 20-city index this month).

Even as the nation shuttered its doors in April and large swaths of the economy came to a crashing halt, home prices continued to steadily increase.

The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 4.7% year-over-year in April. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices grew more slowly, at 3.4% and 4% year-over-year, respectively. The annual rate of growth was higher in April than in March in the national and 20-city indices, and was unchanged in the 10-city index. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the 10- and 20-city indices were up both up 0.3% from March; the national index was up 0.5% month-over-month.

Index	Zillow Forecast, Released 5/26/20	Actual Case-Shiller Indices, Released 6/30/20	Historical Median Absolute Error*
10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.7%	3.4%	0.2%
20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	4.2%	4%	0.1%
U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA)	4.4%	4.7%	0.1%
*Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011.  The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014.

Even amid millions of lost jobs, health-related fears and an incredibly uncertain economic outlook, historically low mortgage rates in April helped to buoy the strong buyer demand that had been building in the months preceding the pandemic, fueling competition for the relatively few for-sale homes on the market and driving up prices as a result. That heightened demand hasn't wavered in the months since, as inventory continues to fall, mortgage rates keep finding new lows and measures of buyer activity have picked up markedly. Substantial risks remain and the longer-term outlook for home prices is still very much unclear, but at least for now, the housing market continues to cruise through this historic downturn more or less unscathed and prices seem poised to continue their ascent for the coming months.

Annual growth in May as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to slow slightly in the 10- and 20-city indices, and accelerate somewhat in the national index. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the April S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, July 28.

Index	Actual April Case-Shiller Change	Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller May Indices
10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.3%	0.3%
10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	3.4%	3.3%
20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.3%	0.3%
20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA)	4%	3.9%
U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA)	0.5%	0.4%
U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA)	4.7%	4.8%

 

 

Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.

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